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Parlement wallon et Parlement de la Communauté française - audition sur le Traité européen sur la stabilité, la coordination et la gouvernance

Ce 4 décembre 2013, B. Bayenet, professeur à l'ULB et vice-président du CRAIG, a été auditionné lors de la réunion conjointe de la Commission des affaires générales, de la simplification administrative, des fonds européens et des relations internationales du Parlement wallon et de la Commission des Relations internationales et des Questions européennes, des Affaires générales et du Règlement, de l'Informatique, contrôle des communications des membres du Gouvernement et des dépenses électorales du Parlement de la Communauté française. 


FMI : Assessing the Impact and Phasing of Multi-year Fiscal Adjustment

IMF - Working Paper No. 182: Assessing the Impact and Phasing of Multi-year Fiscal Adjustment: A General Framework Author/Editor: James Roaf Summary: This paper provides a general framework to assess the output and debt dynamics of an economy undertaking multi-year fiscal adjustment. The framework allows country-specific assumptions about the magnitude and persistence of fiscal multipliers, hysteresis effects, and endogenous financing costs. In addition to informing macro projections, the framework can also shed light on the appropriate phasing of fiscal consolidation—in particular, on whether it should be front- or back-loaded. The framework is applied to stylized advanced and emerging economy examples. It suggests that for a highly-indebted economy undertaking large multi-year fiscal consolidation, high multipliers do not always argue against frontloaded adjustment. The case for more gradual or back-loaded adjustment is strongest when hysteresis effects are in play, but it needs to be balanced against implications for debt sustainability. Application to actual country examples tends to cast doubt on claims that very large multipliers have been operating post-crisis. It seems that the GDP forecast errors for Greece may have been due more to over-optimism on potential growth estimates than to underestimating fiscal multipliers. 

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